Princeton geologist suggests oil prices peaked in 2005

By Kayle Dembowski

(Brooke Klenow / Western Herald) Kenneth Deffeyes, Ph.D., a Princeton geologist, author, and long-time Shell employee, uses his wit to inform the audience about Peak Oil at the Frostic Environmental Series lecture held Jan. 13, in the Fetzer Center’s Kirsch Auditorium.

Western Herald

Students and intrigued individuals gathered on Jan. 6 in the Fetzer Center’s Kirsch Auditorium to kick off the Gwen Frostic Enviormental Studies Seminar Series with guest speaker Kenneth Deffeyes, Ph.D.

The series is named after WMU alumni Gwen Frostic, a well-respected artist and naturalist who passed away in 2001. She remains to be an influential and critical part of WMU today through her nearly $13 million bequest to the university.

“It’s a big honor to be a part of this lecture series,” Deffeyes said.

Deffeyes is a renowned Princeton geologist and author who developed a theory that the world oil industry peaked three years ago in 2005.

Deffeyes’ books Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage and Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert’s Peak, as well as his theories about the oil industry are greatly influenced by the work of M. King Hubbert, a
geoscientist for Shell oil industry.

Hubbert attempted to predict oil prices through calculations and graphs. His prediction resulted in a parabola shaped graph with the peak of oil prices in the year 2000.

Deffeyes, although agreeing in Hubbert’s parabola shaped prediction differed in opinion on what time the peak would occur. Instead of 2000, Deffeyes predicts that the height of oil prices occurred in 2005.

Many graphs were used during the presentation to support Deffeyes opinions. One was a plot graph of U.S. oil cost as percent of GDP. The two highest spikes displayed on the graph were in the early 1980s and mid 2000s.

Deffeyes went on to explain that part of the reason for the ‘80s spike was the Iraq-Iran war.

“[The war] caused 4 million barrels of oil a day to be taken off the market,” Deffeyes said.

Deffeyes also explained that OPEC played a large role in past situations like the ‘80s oil crisis and had more control in the oil industry in the past.

“OPEC is no longer in the position to control the upside of oil,” Deffeyes said.

Deffeyes also discussed current issues related to oil, energy and other environmental issues including the long-term use of resources.

“For the next 200 to 300 years we’re going to have enough coal and uranium to keep civilization, however after that everything has to be solar,” Deffeyes said.

Farming and its impact on the prices in the food market was also a note worthy topic discussed.

“A part of the squeeze has to do with agriculture. Low energy agriculture isn’t part of the new trend of organic. Fertilizers such as phosphate are also becoming more scarce,” Deffeyes said.

The evening concluded when Deffeyes humorously asked the audience with “What would Jesus drive?” and then followed by Deffeyes answering audience questions.

Short URL: http://www.westernherald.com/?p=3182

Posted by HeraldAdmin on Jan 15 2009. Filed under Nation, News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

Cody Kimball
Web Manager: I'm a Communication Student at WMU, a SCUBA Diver, Boater, Ordained Minister, Notary Public, Web Designer, Film Maker, DJ, and of course a Journalist. Born and raised in Port Huron, MI and a graduate of SC4. http://www.codykimball.com